# Applied Optoelectronics stock sentiment: five scores on the record through a 62% slide > Applied Optoelectronics fell 62% from its June peak. Quantral published its score five times along the way, never below 71, while the graded accounts ran 7-to-1 bullish. Then Q2 landed and the stock closed 80% above the low. By Maya Koeva · 2026-08-14  On June 4, Applied Optoelectronics closed at $202.89. On July 29, eight weeks later, it closed at $76.52. The market took 62% off a company whose optics sit in the middle of the AI buildout. Most versions of this story arrive after the fact: the stock recovers, then someone shows you the data that would have kept you calm. We do not have to do that here, because we published the data while it was happening, five times, with dates on it. *[Chart: Applied Optoelectronics daily closes, June 4 to August 12. The low is July 29 at $76.52.]* ## What we published, and when Five posts on this blog carried an Applied Optoelectronics score between late June and early August. Here is each one next to where the stock closed the day it ran. | Published | Piece | Score in print | AAOI close | |---|---|---:|---:| | Jun 26 | [The most talked-about stocks](/blog/wendys-most-talked-about-stock) | 88 | $135.69 | | Jun 30 | [The June scorecard](/blog/june-signal-scorecard) | 71 | $148.16 | | Jul 13 | [Week in signals, Jul 6 to 10](/blog/week-in-signals-jul-6-10) | 90 | $111.88 | | Jul 20 | [Earnings week](/blog/earnings-week-crowd-looking-elsewhere) | 83 | $103.02 | | Aug 5 | [Early August's loudest stocks](/blog/stocks-that-owned-early-august) | 87 | $128.56 | The score never printed below 71. The close column drops 30% between its second row and its fourth, then starts to turn. Two of those posts treated the name as an open question at the time. The June scorecard filed it under "The honest part": "Applied Optoelectronics scored 71 and fell 26%", with the caveat that "a four-week snapshot is not a verdict". The July 13 piece was blunter: two names the score rated highly fell anyway, and this was the sharper example, a 90 built on the best crowd in that week's set while the stock dropped another 2.8%. We did not know on July 13 that the read would pay. We published it anyway, because it was what the accounts we track were saying. ## What sat under those scores Run the whole slide, June 4 to July 29, as one window. The accounts we track produced 379 Applied Optoelectronics mentions in it: 287 bullish calls against 47 bearish, about 6-to-1. More than half of that room carries a graded record. 213 of the 379 mentions, 56%, came from accounts with a credibility score above 0.5, accounts whose past calls we have graded and found to hold up. The same cut on [Nebius through its own drawdown](/blog/nebius-stock-sentiment) was 37%. Inside that graded group the split was 179 bullish against 25 bearish, about 7-to-1, and it held: across the eight weeks of the slide, bearish calls outnumbered bullish ones on exactly one day, in early July, by a single call, 7 to 6. *[Chart: Applied Optoelectronics mentions across the accounts Quantral tracks, June 4 to August 12. Green is bullish, red bearish. Across the slide the red band takes one day, by one call.]* The conversation here happens on X: between June 4 and August 12, 482 of the 552 mentions came from 44 X accounts we track, against 67 from Reddit. These are people posting under their own handles, with their records attached. ## Who was making the calls The six graded accounts that covered the name most often through the slide, June 4 to July 29: | Account | Credibility | Mentions | Bullish | Bearish | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | @PhotonBull | 0.64 | 56 | 52 | 1 | | @ren_stocks | 0.62 | 28 | 27 | 0 | | @crux_capital_ | 0.70 | 19 | 16 | 1 | | @CKCapitalxx | 0.80 | 19 | 18 | 0 | | @aleabitoreddit | 0.71 | 16 | 16 | 0 | | @babyfolio | 0.65 | 12 | 11 | 1 | Between them: 140 bullish calls, 3 bearish, while the stock lost 62%. The room was not unanimous. One credible account, @ThematicTrader at 0.58, leaned bearish through the slide, 6 calls against 4. One graded skeptic stood against six graded bulls, and the score weighed both sides of that argument. ## Same day, same data, opposite answers A score that runs high on everything would tell you nothing, so here is the control. On August 4, three names pulled the crowd in at close to the same volume, and [we scored them the next morning](/blog/stocks-that-owned-early-august): Applied Optoelectronics 87, Palantir 80, AMD 41. Through the August 12 close, the two names scored 80-plus each gained about 5%. The name scored 41 fell 7%. Eight days is a short window and we will keep watching it, but the spread ran the right way, and it went out before the fact rather than fitted after it. ## Then the quarter landed Applied Optoelectronics reported Q2 on August 6. Revenue came in at $191.9 million, up 86% year on year and 27% over the prior quarter, the fifth record quarter in a row, with the company back to non-GAAP profitability. 800G product revenue more than doubled sequentially, guidance for Q3 came in at $255 to $290 million, and management said demand for 800G and 1.6T modules should exceed what it can build through mid-2027, with more than $200 million of 1.6T orders already in hand. The stock had started moving before the print, up 40% across the two sessions of August 3 and 4. The report added 9% more the next day, and by the August 12 close the stock sat at $138.08, 80% above the July 29 low. That close is still a third below the June 4 peak, and nobody who bought at $202 is celebrating. The claim here is narrower and checkable: the accounts with graded records read the drawdown as a story problem, not a business problem, and the quarter came in on their side. Applied Optoelectronics carries a 7-day Quantral score of 71 as of this morning. ## The reading the chart could not give you On July 29, at $76.52, the chart gave you one reading: the market had cut this company's price by 62% in eight weeks. The score gave you the other one: the accounts that have been right before were still on it, 7-to-1, and had conceded exactly one day of the entire decline. You could not act on that second reading unless someone had graded the accounts first. That grading is the work Quantral does before you open the app, and it is why the score held between 71 and 90 through a stretch where the price said panic: the weighted read stayed bullish for all but one day of it. The score has no opinion about the stock. It reads who is talking, and how often they have been right before. We score the conversation around thousands of companies, weight it by who has been right before, and show the calls underneath so you can check the reasoning yourself. See the live reading on Applied Optoelectronics in Quantral: the score, every call behind it, and the track record of the account that made it. --- *Mention counts, sentiment splits, and credibility figures cover the accounts Quantral tracks over June 4 to August 12, 2026, bucketed by rolling 24-hour windows. The five scores in the table are as published in the linked posts on their dates; the current score is the seven-day reading as of August 14, 2026. Prices are closing prices via public markets through the August 12 close. Positions attributed to accounts are their stated views, not Quantral's. Quantral surfaces signals and context from public sources to support your own research. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Past signals are not indicative of future results.*