Santa Claus rally: what it is, the 2026 dates, and how often it works
By Maya Koeva · October 15, 2026 · 8 min read
The Santa Claus rally is the stock market's habit of rising over seven trading days: the last five of the year and the first two of January. Since 1950 the S&P 500 has gained about 1.3% on average in that window and finished higher in roughly four years out of five. It has also missed three years in a row.
The 2026 Santa Claus rally window runs from Thursday, December 24, 2026 to Tuesday, January 5, 2027. The starting point is the close on Wednesday, December 23.
Santa Claus rally dates 2026
Christmas and New Year's Day both fall on a Friday in 2026, so the seven trading days spread across two weeks.
| Date | NYSE & Nasdaq | Window |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2026Wednesday | Open | Starting close |
| Dec 24, 2026Thursday | Closes 1pm | Day 1 |
| Dec 25, 2026Friday | Closed | Christmas |
| Dec 28, 2026Monday | Open | Day 2 |
| Dec 29, 2026Tuesday | Open | Day 3 |
| Dec 30, 2026Wednesday | Open | Day 4 |
| Dec 31, 2026Thursday | Open | Day 5 |
| Jan 1, 2027Friday | Closed | New Year's Day |
| Jan 4, 2027Monday | Open | Day 6 |
| Jan 5, 2027Tuesday | Open | Day 7, final close |
Day 1 is a short session: the market closes at 1:00pm Eastern on Christmas Eve. The full list of closures and early closes is on the stock market holiday calendar.
Santa Claus rally dates 2027
In 2027 the window runs from Monday, December 27, 2027 to Tuesday, January 4, 2028, measured from the close on Thursday, December 23. Christmas falls on a Saturday, so the market takes Friday, December 24 off, and the last five trading days of 2027 are Monday through Friday of the following week. New Year's Day 2028 is a Saturday, and the NYSE does not move a Saturday holiday back into the old year, so Friday, December 31 is a normal trading day. Check the 2028 exchange calendar closer to the date.
How often the Santa Claus rally happens
Yale Hirsch named the pattern in the Stock Trader's Almanac in 1972 and fixed the window at seven trading days. The long-run numbers most often quoted, from Carson Group's Ryan Detrick:
- Average S&P 500 gain since 1950: about 1.3% over the seven days.
- Positive in about 79% of years, close to four years out of five.
- Every other seven-day stretch of the year averages about 0.24%, and is positive around 58% of the time.
That puts the Santa window at about five times the average of any other week and a half. The gap has narrowed in recent decades. FactSet found the S&P 500 rose in the window in 15 of the 20 years through 2021, with an average gain of 0.7%, about half the long-run figure.
The last 10 Santa Claus rallies
Each move runs from the close before day 1 to the close on day 7, using S&P 500 closing levels from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED).
| Window | S&P 500 move | Santa came? |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 24, 2025 to Jan 5, 2026 | 0.11% | No |
| Dec 24, 2024 to Jan 3, 2025 | 0.53% | No |
| Dec 22, 2023 to Jan 3, 2024 | 0.88% | No |
| Dec 23, 2022 to Jan 4, 2023 | 0.80% | Yes |
| Dec 27, 2021 to Jan 4, 2022 | 1.43% | Yes |
| Dec 24, 2020 to Jan 5, 2021 | 1.00% | Yes |
| Dec 24, 2019 to Jan 3, 2020 | 0.34% | Yes |
| Dec 24, 2018 to Jan 3, 2019 | 1.29% | Yes |
| Dec 22, 2017 to Jan 3, 2018 | 1.06% | Yes |
| Dec 23, 2016 to Jan 4, 2017 | 0.43% | Yes |
Seven of the last 10 windows finished higher, with an average move of about 0.5%. The three misses are the three most recent: Santa has not shown up since the 2022 to 2023 window. None of the three losses was large, and the biggest gain in the decade was 1.43%. The effect comes in fractions of a percent, less than the S&P 500 can move in one afternoon.
"If Santa Claus should fail to call"
The Almanac pairs the pattern with a warning: "If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall." Broad and Wall is the corner of the New York Stock Exchange. The idea is that a market too weak to rally in a cheerful, quiet week may have trouble ahead.
The warning has two famous hits. The window into 2000 lost 4.0%, the worst on the Almanac's record at the time, and the dot-com bear market started weeks later. The window into 2008 fell about 2.5%, and the S&P 500 lost 38.5% that year.
The last three misses went the other way:
| Santa missed in the window into | S&P 500 that year |
|---|---|
| 2024 | 23.3% |
| 2025 | 16.4% |
| 2026 | 12.8% through October 14 |
Jeff Hirsch, who now edits the Almanac, has said the pattern matters most when it fails to appear. After three false alarms in a row, treat a miss as one data point about the year, and weigh it against earnings, rates and what investors are saying.
Why stocks tend to rise in late December
Researchers and traders offer several explanations, and none has been proven:
- Thin trading. Many professional traders are on holiday, volume drops, and smaller orders can move prices further than they would in a normal week.
- Holiday cash. Investors put year-end bonuses and new-year retirement contributions into their brokerage accounts, and some buy stocks with it right away.
- Tax-loss selling is over. Investors who sell losers for the tax write-off tend to do it in the first half of December. Once that selling stops, the stocks it pushed down can bounce.
- Window dressing. Some fund managers buy the year's winners before December 31 so they show up in year-end holdings reports.
- Mood. Holiday optimism is hard to measure, but you can see it in what investors post. The accounts we track keep posting through the holidays, while trading desks go quiet.
What the Santa Claus rally means for you
If you buy and hold stocks or index funds, very little. An average of about 1.3% over seven days will not make or break a portfolio held for years, and the last three windows finished lower. A long-term investor gains more from staying invested through the whole year than from timing one week.
A few practical points for the window:
- Mind the holiday hours. The market closes at 1:00pm Eastern on December 24, 2026 and is closed on December 25 and January 1. Normal stock market hours are 9:30am to 4:00pm Eastern.
- Expect thin volume. Fewer buyers and sellers can mean wider spreads on smaller stocks. Use a limit order if you trade that week.
- Finish tax moves by December 31. If you sell a loser to claim the tax loss for 2026, the trade has to happen by the last trading day of the year, Thursday, December 31.
- Do not trade the pattern. A small average and a three-year losing streak make a weak reason to buy or sell anything.
For a read on how investors feel going into the holidays, the monthly stock market sentiment page tracks how bullish the accounts we follow are, month by month.
Santa Claus rally vs the January effect
People often mix up the two. The Santa Claus rally is a seven-day window spanning the turn of the year, and it is about the whole market. The January effect is an older observation that small company stocks have tended to beat large ones in January. Most analysts tie it to the end of tax-loss selling. The Almanac also tracks the "first five days" of January and the "January barometer", the idea that January's direction hints at the year's. Together with the Santa Claus rally, the Almanac calls the three its January trifecta.
Common questions
What is the Santa Claus rally?
The Santa Claus rally is the tendency for stocks to rise over the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of January. Yale Hirsch named it in the Stock Trader's Almanac in 1972. Since 1950 the S&P 500 has gained about 1.3% on average in the window.
When is the Santa Claus rally in 2026?
The 2026 window runs from Thursday, December 24, 2026 to Tuesday, January 5, 2027, measured from the close on Wednesday, December 23. It covers December 24, 28, 29, 30 and 31, then January 4 and 5.
How long does the Santa Claus rally last?
Seven trading days. With weekends and the Christmas and New Year's Day closures, that usually spans about a week and a half on the calendar.
Does the Santa Claus rally happen every year?
No. Since 1950 the S&P 500 has risen in the window about 79% of the time. It missed three years in a row most recently: the windows into 2024, 2025 and 2026 all finished lower.
Was there a Santa Claus rally in 2025?
No. The S&P 500 slipped 0.11% between the close on December 23, 2025 and the close on January 5, 2026. The window into 2025 also finished lower, down 0.53%.
Is the Santa Claus rally real?
It shows up in the long-run data: the seven days have averaged about 1.3% since 1950, against about 0.24% for other seven-day stretches. The effect is small, it has weakened over the past two decades, and nobody has proven why it happens, so it works better as trivia than as a trading plan.
What happens if there is no Santa Claus rally?
The Stock Trader's Almanac treats a miss as a warning sign, and misses came before the 2000 and 2008 bear markets. The last three misses were false alarms: the S&P 500 gained 23.3% in 2024 and 16.4% in 2025, and was up 12.8% for 2026 through October 14.
Is the stock market open on Christmas Eve?
In 2026, yes, until 1:00pm Eastern on Thursday, December 24. The market is closed on Christmas Day, Friday, December 25, and on New Year's Day, Friday, January 1, 2027.
Window returns use S&P 500 closing levels from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), from the close before day 1 to the close on day 7. Long-run averages are from Carson Group's Ryan Detrick, FactSet and the Stock Trader's Almanac, as reported in October 2026. Past seasonal patterns do not predict future returns. Quantral surfaces signals and context from public sources to support your own research. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.