Culper Research's Nvidia short named Alice Huang in May, and NVDA is 23% lower since

What did Culper Research say about Nvidia?

The report opened with one line: "We are short Nvidia $NVDA. We believe Nvidia has a significant China problem." Culper published it on May 13 as a 40-page PDF and a 17-post thread on X. The core claims, all of them Culper's:

• China never went to zero. Nvidia has said its China data-center business went to "zero" after the April 2025 export restrictions. Culper claimed that more than 20% of Nvidia's fiscal 2026 compute revenue was still China-driven, through illegal GPU diversion and Southeast Asian intermediaries.
• Megaspeed's balance sheet. Culper said Megaspeed, a Singapore company, grew from $33 million in assets at the end of 2023 to $3.0 billion at the end of 2024. The jump came from $2.9 billion of "refundable deposits" from an unnamed source, forwarded to subsidiaries such as Speedmatrix in Malaysia.
• The Alibaba link. Culper said documents suggest Alibaba financed Megaspeed through a Singapore entity, Apex Enterprise Solutions, which had made $4.1 billion in prepayments by March 31, 2025. On November 9 the Financial Times reported that documents show Alibaba lent to Megaspeed through subsidiaries.
• The server pipeline. Speedmatrix imported $4.6 billion of product from December 2024 to January 2026, Culper said, $4 billion of it from Aivres, one of Nvidia's "Elite OEM" partners. Aivres is one-third Chinese-owned and rebranded after its parent, Inspur, was added to the US Entity List.
• Alice Huang. The report called Jensen Huang's ties to Megaspeed executive Alice Huang (no relation) "uncomfortably close" and showed photos of the two at a Taipei party in June 2024 and a dinner in May 2025. It did not claim a romantic relationship.

Culper said it interviewed former Nvidia, Supermicro and server-maker employees and studied filings in Singapore and Malaysia.

Who is Christian Lamarco?

Christian Lamarco is the founder of Culper Research. He graduated in 2016 from Grove City College, a small Christian college in Pennsylvania, and worked at GrizzlyRock Capital, a long-short fund in Chicago. In 2019 he quit with a few months of savings and started Culper. The firm is named after the Culper Spy Ring of the Revolutionary War and uses a minuteman as its logo.

Culper is small: a Wall Street Journal profile by Ben Cohen on November 11 describes two analysts working out of a Brooklyn apartment. Lamarco once finished 2nd in a stock-picking contest at Carnegie Mellon and won $100.

Culper makes money if the stock falls. It discloses that position in its reports, so look for a second source before you lean on any claim in them. Our guide to short interest explains how that bet shows up in the numbers.

Culper Research's past targets

Culper's earlier reports, with what happened next on the public record:

What Nvidia stock did after the report

Investors shrugged the report off at first. It closed at $225.83 on May 13 and at an all-time high of $235.74 the next day. It set a new closing high of $239.24 on October 6.

Then major outlets started reporting the story Culper had sketched in May:

• October 29. The New York Times and the FT reported that US intelligence had concluded Alice Huang was gathering information for China's Ministry of State Security. China's Foreign Ministry called the spy narrative "unsubstantiated." NVDA closed at $213.66.
• November 5. Culper posted "We wrote about this in May." Tech stocks sold off the same day after Democrats won control of Congress, and NVDA closed at $181.60.
• November 7. The New York Times reported that the US cleared Nvidia chips to Chinese-linked firms with empty offices, and that a Commerce probe of Megaspeed was halted late last year after outreach from Nvidia.
• November 8. Nvidia's board opened an independent investigation, run by a committee of independent directors with outside counsel, NPR reported. Huang said he fully supports it, and in an email to staff he admitted being unfaithful to his wife.
• November 9. NVDA fell 4.27% to $178.67 while AMD rose 13.26%, Marvell 9.49% and Broadcom 8.78%, and a shareholder suit against Nvidia and Huang was reported, CNBC wrote. TechCrunch and CBS News went back to the May report.

NVDA closed at $168.89 on November 10, after an intraday low of $165.89, and at $173.73 on November 11. That is 23% below the May 13 close, 27% below the October 6 high, and 19% below the October 29 close. Nvidia reports third-quarter earnings on November 17. Our Nvidia stock forecast covers what analysts and the graded accounts expect going in.

What the Quantral app showed from May to November

Quantral follows @CulperResearch, so its posts land in the Nvidia feed in the app.

On May 13, the day the report came out, @TheValueist, 7th in our track-record ranking, posted a long breakdown of it. His verdict was that the report "should be treated as a material, diligence-worthy negative catalyst rather than as a fully proven short thesis." He called the leap to what senior management knew the weakest part. If you opened the Nvidia feed on May 13, you got the short thesis and a measured read of it from an account with a graded record.

On October 29, the day the New York Times story broke, @negligible_cap pointed out that the Culper report "actually discussed Alice Huang."

Nvidia drew 39 mentions from the accounts we track on May 13 (20 positive, 4 negative) and 60 on May 14 (27 positive, 17 negative), the day the stock made a new high.

Signals

9,028

Score

PositiveNegativeChatterNoise

Report

8554

MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Nvidia's monthly score in the app, which gives more weight to authors with a proven track record, from the month of the report to today:

The score sat at Weak in May, the month of the report, and climbed back to Strong by August as the stock recovered.

The score follows what the accounts we track say about the company. In October, the month Nvidia set its closing high, it showed their conviction thinning, before the October 29 story and the November slide.

This week mentions jumped and turned negative. Nvidia drew 187 mentions on November 8 (59 positive, 104 negative), 276 on November 9 (115 to 125) and 335 on November 11 (97 to 188). As of today the 24-hour score is 48 (Weak) and the 7-day score is 54 (Weak), with trusted voices at 15 positive and 25 negative.

What the report did not prove

The scandal backs up the May report on Alice Huang. The revenue thesis still has four gaps:

• Culper is short. It profits if Nvidia falls, and it says so.
• The diversion numbers are Culper's. The claim that more than 20% of compute revenue stayed China-driven has not been independently verified.
• The other side has answered. Megaspeed has said US and Malaysian authorities and Nvidia inspected its offices. Nvidia has said its site checks found GPUs where they should be.
• Espionage and revenue are separate questions. The Alice Huang reports cover intelligence gathering, and none of them measure chip sales.

The board's investigation and Nvidia's November 17 print are the next chances to check these claims against filings.

What to take from this

Culper's Nvidia report was public for six months before the scandal made it famous. In the Quantral app, one of our best graded accounts posted a careful read of it the day it came out. Nvidia's monthly score then cooled from Strong in September to Moderate in October, the month of the closing high, and to Weak in November. The report is still a set of allegations from a firm betting against the stock. Read it next to the accounts with a record, and watch how their conviction moves. For more on how famous bears have fared on Nvidia, read our Michael Burry profile, and for the last print, see how the graded accounts called August and the scorecard a month later.

Culper Research Nvidia FAQ

Who is Christian Lamarco?

Christian Lamarco, 31, founded Culper Research in New York in 2019 after working at GrizzlyRock Capital, a Chicago long-short fund. He runs the firm with two analysts.

What did Culper Research say about Nvidia?

On May 13, 2026, Culper said it was short Nvidia and claimed more than 20% of Nvidia's fiscal 2026 compute revenue stayed China-driven through intermediaries such as Megaspeed. It also described Jensen Huang's ties to Megaspeed executive Alice Huang as "uncomfortably close."

Is Culper Research still short Nvidia?

Culper disclosed a short position in its May report and posted "We wrote about this in May" on November 5. Short sellers can close a position without announcing it, so the May disclosure is the last confirmed word.

Was the Culper report proven right?

Not as a whole. Reporting since October backs up the concern about Alice Huang, but the China revenue claim has not been independently verified, and Megaspeed and Nvidia dispute it.

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Quantral follows Culper Research; this page describes its public report and posts, and its claims are allegations. Other facts come from the reports linked above, the Wall Street Journal (November 11, 2026), The New York Times and the Financial Times. NVDA prices are Yahoo Finance daily closes through November 11, 2026. Mentions and quoted posts come from the accounts Quantral tracks, with days in New York time; scores are as of November 12, 2026. Quantral surfaces signals and context from public sources to support your own research. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Past signals are not indicative of future results.