Nvidia stock forecast: the graded accounts stayed 4-to-1 bullish through a 14% slide

In the feeds we follow, October 30 was the only day of the last 30 with more bearish posts about Nvidia than bullish ones, 13 to 7, as the stock fell 4.2%. Over the same 30 days the graded accounts ran 113 to 27. Take out the most active of them and the rest still run 67 to 17.

This page puts that next to what analysts forecast, what the bulls and bears argue, and what happened the last two times the graded accounts went into an Nvidia print this bullish.

Nvidia stock forecast: the short answer

As of November 2, 2026, Nvidia's last close is $204.64 (October 30), up 9.7% for the year and 14.5% under its October 6 high. The accounts we track with a graded record are bullish on it, 113 calls to 27 over the 30 days to November 1. The average analyst 12-month price target is $321.47 to $328.95, depending on the source. Nvidia reports third-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Tuesday, November 17, after the close. Quantral doesn't publish price targets. These are the calls of the accounts with a record, and the app grades every call it tracks, losers included.

Nvidia stock price: from the October high to $204.64

Nvidia is down 3.0% in the week to October 30 and 10.4% in the month. It is also 2.4% below the $209.66 it closed at on August 26, the day of the last print, so the whole post-print gain is gone.

What the graded accounts expect

Graded here means an account with more than ten resolved calls, more than half of them right (how a track record is graded).

From October 3 to November 1, Nvidia drew 740 mentions from 289 accounts we track: 492 on X from 65 handles, 217 from r/wallstreetbets across 197 accounts, 24 from YouTube finance shows. The whole crowd ran 523 bullish to 177 bearish. The 28 graded accounts ran 113 to 27, almost all of it on X, and 13 of the 28 rank in our top 20 by track record.

In the last week the two groups split. From October 26 to November 1 the crowd ran 94 bullish to 57 bearish, its weakest week of the month, and r/wallstreetbets was close to even all month at 115 to 79. The graded accounts held at 26 to 9.

One account carries a lot of that. @TheValueist posted 46 bullish calls and 10 bearish ones in the 30 days, and 18 to 5 in the last week. Take it out and the other 27 graded accounts still run 67 to 17, the same 4-to-1.

Account	Graded calls, all stocks	NVDA bull : bear, Oct 3 to Nov 1
@TheValueist	1,295	46 : 10
LI@LIWEI_TWCapital	76	12 : 0
@ren_stocks	426	7 : 0
@Frenchie_	177	5 : 1
@CKCapitalxx	712	5 : 0
@amitisinvesting	79	5 : 0
@jukan05	179	3 : 3
@AtlasShrug1	89	0 : 5

The bull case they give

• Demand still runs ahead of supply. The most repeated bullish posts cite Vera Rubin shipments lifting Taiwan suppliers, multi-billion-dollar GPU commitments from neoclouds such as Nscale and Lambda, and Nvidia booking substrate and packaging capacity early.
• The depreciation worry looks wrong to them. @ren_stocks pointed to rising rental rates on H100, H200 and B200 GPUs as evidence that older chips keep their value. @daniel_koss argued that cheaper cost per token from GB300 grows demand.
• The slide is temporary. @TheValueist called the AI-infrastructure selloff transitory on October 30 and said on October 26 that the group sits closer to disbelief than euphoria.

The bear case they give

• Custom chips. The sharpest bearish posts look years out: Google's TPUs, Amazon's Trainium and Microsoft's Maia giving the biggest buyers an alternative, which @TheValueist said pressures Nvidia's pricing over years while leaving near-term demand intact.
• Circular financing. @AtlasShrug1, bearish on all five of its Nvidia calls this month, argued that Nvidia's guarantees and investments in its own customers can't last.
• Supply-chain slips. On November 1, @Aaronwei3n wrote that delays in the Vera Rubin rack supply chain had gone from contested to consensus in Taiwan, and @jukan05 flagged a lower HBM4 memory speed in Nvidia's specs.

For the best-known Nvidia short, our Michael Burry profile covers it, and our AI bubble explainer covers the wider argument.

What analysts forecast

The average 12-month analyst price target is $321.47 across 55 analysts on MarketBeat, with a range of $210 to $515 and a consensus rating of buy. MarketScreener shows $328.95 across 62 analysts, from $180 to $515. Both pages were current to the $204.64 close on October 30, so the averages sit 57% to 61% above the price.

For the quarter itself, Nvidia guided third-quarter revenue to $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, with no data-center compute revenue from China assumed, and gross margin to 74.0%.

What happened the last two times

The graded accounts have gone into an Nvidia print this bullish twice this year, and the two results point opposite ways.

• May 20. The tracked accounts went in 43 to 7. Nvidia gave back 10.2% over the following three weeks.
• August 26. They went in 62 to 11, holding while the stock closed red seven sessions in a row and the crowd flipped bearish for a day. Nvidia beat and guided above consensus, and a month after the print it was up 8.5% from the last close before it.

The pattern from August is back: a falling price, a crowd that wobbles on the red days, and graded accounts that don't. In August that paid, and in May it didn't. We will grade this one the same way after the print.

What to watch on November 17

1. The fourth-quarter guide. In August the $108 billion guide, nearly $4 billion above consensus, did the heavier lifting. Results land at about 1:20 p.m. PT, ahead of the 2:00 p.m. PT call, according to Nvidia's call notice.
2. Rubin timing. The newest bearish posts are about supply-chain delays, and the bull case rests on Rubin shipments. Nvidia's word on when Vera Rubin racks ship in volume tests both.
3. Gross margin. Nvidia guided 74.0% for the quarter. If custom chips are pressuring Nvidia's pricing, this is the line where it would show.

Common questions

What is the Nvidia stock forecast for 2026?

Quantral doesn't publish price targets. The average 12-month analyst target is $321.47 (MarketBeat, 55 analysts) to $328.95 (MarketScreener, 62 analysts) as of the October 30 close of $204.64. The accounts we track with a graded record were bullish on Nvidia 113 to 27 from October 3 to November 1.

Is Nvidia stock a buy before earnings?

We don't give buy or sell advice. Going into the November 17 print, the graded accounts we track are bullish about 4-to-1, and held that lean through a 14.5% drop from the October 6 high. The same setup came before a gain after the August print and a loss after the May one.

When is Nvidia's next earnings date?

Nvidia reports third-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, after the market closes, with a conference call at 5:00 p.m. ET.

Does Nvidia pay a dividend?

Yes. Nvidia pays $0.25 per share each quarter. It raised the dividend from $0.01 in May 2026, and the last payment went out on October 1.

Why is Nvidia stock down?

From the October 6 high to the October 30 close Nvidia fell 14.5%, with the steepest days on October 22 (down 4.4%) and October 30 (down 4.2%). The bearish posts in our feeds cite custom chips from Nvidia's biggest customers, financing deals with its own customers, and Vera Rubin supply-chain delays.

Try it

See the live reading on Nvidia in Quantral before November 17, with every call behind it and the record of the account that made it. Quantral is an investment ideas app built on alternative data, on the web at app.quantral.com, on iOS and on Android, with a 7-day free trial on the yearly plan.

Prices are daily closes through October 30, 2026. Mention counts and splits cover the accounts Quantral tracks, by US Eastern day, October 3 to November 1. Graded accounts have more than ten resolved calls, most of them right. "Graded calls, all stocks" is each account's resolved call count across every stock. The 7-day score is the reading on the morning of November 2, not a historical value. May and August figures are quoted as published in the linked posts. Analyst targets are as shown by MarketBeat and MarketScreener after the October 30 close. Positions attributed to accounts are their views, not Quantral's.

Quantral surfaces signals and context from public sources to support your own research. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Past signals are not indicative of future results.