Nebius stock sentiment: the price fell 48% and the credible room never turned

Nebius closed at $286.69 on June 18. Six weeks later, on July 29, it closed at $148.22. Anyone holding it watched 48% of their position disappear.

A slide like that usually shows up in our data as a room changing its mind, with the bulls going quiet and the split narrowing week by week. Nebius did not do that.

Not one day of it

Between June 18 and July 29, the accounts we track produced 1,007 Nebius mentions, 723 of them bullish calls against 125 bearish.

Split that by track record and the gap widens. 376 of those mentions, 37%, came from accounts with a credibility score above 0.5, meaning accounts whose past calls we have graded and found to hold up. Inside that group: 287 bullish against 37 bearish, close to 8-to-1.

The daily series is the part that surprised me. Going back to June 18, bearish calls did not outnumber bullish calls on Nebius on a single day. That holds through the two worst sessions of the slide, July 1 and July 24, when the stock fell 17% and 15%. The narrowest the split ever got was 9 bullish to 5 bearish, on June 26, and it widened back out from there while the price kept falling.

This is mostly the X side of what we cover: over the last 30 days, 770 mentions came from 47 separate X accounts we track against 70 from r/wallstreetbets. Nebius is a name people argue about under their own handles, with their records attached.

Who was making the calls

Volume on its own is easy to misread, so cut the same window by account. These six graded accounts covered Nebius more often than any others through the drawdown. Between them they made 216 bullish calls and 5 bearish.

Account	Credibility	Mentions	Bullish	Bearish
@Sandeman52	0.58	55	42	3
@PhotonBull	0.63	50	45	1
@babyfolio	0.65	48	41	0
@daniel_koss	0.73	42	40	0
@CKCapitalxx	0.80	31	26	1
@ren_stocks	0.62	23	22	0

Four of the six did not make a single bearish call on Nebius while the stock halved.

The rest of the wreckage

A score that reads bullish on everything falling would tell you nothing, so we ran the same cut across every other name that got hit that summer.

Fifteen of them fell more than 25% between June 18 and July 29 while drawing at least 100 mentions. Nebius had the widest credible split of the lot, close to 8-to-1 bullish. At the other end of the same list, one name's graded accounts ran better than 1-to-5 the other way, bearish into its own decline. Two charts you could not tell apart, and the accounts with records read them in opposite directions.

Of the ten in that group with prices through August 12, Nebius also produced the biggest bounce off the July 29 low, up 75% against 38% for the next best.

Then the quarter landed

Nebius reported Q2 on August 12. Revenue rose 454% year on year to $582.3 million, the company pointed to four large compute deals signed in the quarter including one with Reflection AI worth more than $1 billion through 2029, and it raised year-end contracted power guidance to 5 gigawatts from about 4.

The stock closed at $259.20, up 34% on the session and up 75% from that July 29 low. Nebius currently carries a 7-day Quantral score of 74, and the last seven days ran 148 bullish calls against 18.

The reading the chart could not give you

On July 29 you had two readings available on Nebius, and they pointed opposite ways.

The chart showed a company the market had repriced by half in six weeks. The score showed that the accounts with graded records were still on it, by close to 8-to-1, and had been every day of the decline. You cannot pull that second reading off a price chart or a mention count. It takes someone having graded the accounts first, which is the work we do before you ever open the app.

The weighting is where it gets interesting. Strip out the accounts without a graded record and the Nebius split gets wider: the crowd as a whole ran close to 6-to-1 bullish through the drawdown, while the accounts that have been right before ran close to 8-to-1. The conviction sat with the part of the room that had earned it. Finding that gap is what the credibility weighting is for, and it was readable on July 29 rather than assembled in hindsight.

We score the conversation around thousands of companies, weight it by who has been right before, and show you the calls underneath so you can check the reasoning yourself.

See the live reading on Nebius in Quantral: the score, every call behind it, and the track record of the account that made it.

Mention counts, sentiment splits, and credibility figures cover the accounts Quantral tracks over June 18 to August 12, 2026, bucketed by rolling 24-hour windows. Scores are the current seven-day reading as of August 13, 2026, not historical values. Prices are closing prices via public markets through the August 12 close. Positions attributed to accounts are their stated views, not Quantral's. Quantral surfaces signals and context from public sources to support your own research. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Past signals are not indicative of future results.